An improvement of the large-scale energy plan for Angola. An application of two-stage stochastic optimization
We present important improvements to Angola’s energy plan applying a two-stage stochastic linear optimization model with continuous variables to maximize profit considering a risk neutral strategy and the uncertainty of the main parameters in the second stages. The model covers hydropower generation, the actual 36.4\% share of crude oil exploitation by the government against the international companies and, additionally, starting to produce 22.8\% of natural gas and maintaining the actual 20\% of non-technical losses in electricity consumption under three major scenarios of production capacity and demand for the time horizons periods 2012 and average of 2013-2015, and 2016 and average 2017-2020. Considering the sensitivity analyzes of these time horizons, a government increase on investment, it results in increases of 152.27\% in the government profit for the first stage and an estimate of 149.11\% per year of the second stage.
Palabras clave: energy planning optimal energy mix stochastic optimization sensitivity analysis Angola
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22/04/12
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